Veteran journalist and writer David Lague, now with Reuters in Hong Kong, has written in great detail in a new report, China’s Military Hawks Take The Offensive, that Chinese senior military officers are taking to expressing their calls for war against regional neighbors to the airwaves of Chinese Tv and radio, Internet blogs, and public speeches.
Lague looks at the recent speech by Chinese Lt. General Ren Haiquan at an October gathering of international military officers at Melbourne’s Crown Casino. The speech began nice enough, but quickly degenerated into a rant against Japan’s control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Japanese officers, including Army Lt. General Yoshiaki Nakagawa, left immediately after the speech.
Key Excerpts:
“Ren’s provocative dinner talk was no isolated outburst. His message was typical of the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from senior officers in the People’s Liberation Army.”
“But the combative streak speaks to profound shifts in Chinese politics and foreign policy that transcend the heat of the moment. The more provocative of these officers call for ‘short, sharp wars’ to assert China’s sovereignty. Others urge Beijing to ‘strike first’, ‘prepare for conflict’ or ‘kill a chicken to scare the monkeys’.”
“Among the most bellicose are in a group of about 20 military officers who have become star media and online performers in recent years, including Air Force Colonel Dai Xu, retired army Major General Luo Yuan and Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong.”
“The Air Force Colonel, Dai Xu, is renowned for his regular calls to arms. With China in dispute for much of last year with Japan in the East China Sea and Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Dai argued a short, decisive war, like China’s 1962 border clash with India, would deliver long-term peace. He also said Washington would not risk war with China over these territorial spats.”
“‘Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real,’ he wrote in an August 28 commentary published in the Chinese-language edition of the Global Times.”
“‘This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia,’ added Dai, a researcher at Beijing University’s China Centre for Strategic Studies. ‘We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.’”
“Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong is the best-known of the hawk commentators, appearing frequently as a program host on CCTV 7 and other state-run television outlets. Virulently anti-American, he has a low opinion of U.S. military capabilities and willingness to suffer casualties. The United States would ‘run like a rabbit’ if China went to war with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, he told state television on August 12.”
Thomas Jamison
Terrific find, per usual.
I would only note that the anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre has amped up nationalist rhetoric across Chinese society. The recent virulence of military hawks may be (partly) symptomatic of that broader trend.
Daren Price
I really hope that China is not that naive to think we would let them touch Japan and it not escalate to all out war. If they think we would be scared away, well then they greatly misunderstand the USA and have forgot or ignored a lot of our history.
Jan Man
If America foolishly want to play truant with China, it must also remember the dire consequence of its action.
Robert H.
Well, I believe that any Chinese official making such statements about the USA is ignorant of the USA’s military history and culture. The USA would not “Run like a rabbit” from anything, and just the act of someone believing that would make most American citizens attack. Let us not forget that almost every household in America has multiple guns, and many have complete arsenals, with bombs. Any country dumb enough to attack USA deserves what it gets.
Pat H
Wow. It’s amazing to think that, after all of these years, Vietnam is now accused by China of being a “running dog” of the United States. That that term would even still be in use, let alone about Communist Vietnam, shows a massive degree of delusion in operation by at least that speaker.
Robin Aguila
It’s funny how the Chinese rhetoric evolves over time. During the 2nd world war, their losing rhetoric is that they cannot be defeated because there are more Chinese than there are bullets. Then during the cold war, they reasoned that it is better to kiss the stinkiest and biggest butt than to kiss many butts, hence they embraced communism. And now that they feel that they have a mighty military, they boast to kill a chicken to scare away the monkeys. The problem with this communist country is that no matter how much they try to improve, they will always have a chink in their armor.
Jan Man
Why not turn the story into a different angle and watch Americans losing in almost every battle fighting against minnows like Afghans, Iraqis, Vietnamese, North Koreans as well as the Muslims. Will trillions of dollars pumped in and wasted in Afghanistan, all it got to show is to watch the cowboys pulling themselves out with tail between the legs.
Leveller
There is a grain of truth in your comment, Jan Man, but what it lacks is analysis. America is not good at fighting counter-insurgency wars, partially because western military forces are conditioned not to behave in the manner that is sometimes required to win these conflicts – and yes, as with all armies some times individuals make mistakes and do terrible things but that doesn’t reflect the broader institutional culture.
Where you are catastrophically wrong is to underestimate the ability and resolve of the US when it comes to engaging in conventional state on state conflict. Given that the emphasis of any such US/China conflict would be on the maritime domain, America would, in short order, utterly destroy the PLAN. It’s all very well having millions of Infanteers willing to die for the cause, but if they can’t get to where they have to fight then they are not a battle winning asset. If China is stupid enough to engage its neighbours militarily then it will be in for a very rude shock indeed.
Daren Price
Exactly. We are forced to fight these conflicts with our hands tied behind our backs to say because we must be humane and play by rules, (the politically correct crowd). In all out war, there will be no rules. In the end, there would be no winners in a China/USA war, only a lot of death and destruction on both sides because in the end, it would most likely go nuclear. People need to put their pride aside and do what is right for all people instead of the us vs. them attitude. Jan, ask Saddam how well we lost in the Gulf War. He too used Vietnam as an example to underestimate our capability thinking our military was weak. Our problem is we try to turn wars in to nation building. If the gloves would come off they would have been very short wars but the US would be condemned by the world as a war criminal for the death and destruction that would follow. I respect China for their accomplishments but I hope the new found power does not go to their heads and they repeat the mistakes of other countries in history because the stakes are much higher now and would cause all on the planet to suffer. No one needs a WW3.
Jan Man
@Darren,
There is more benefits to Japan if it voluntarily return the Diaoyu Islands back to the Chinese. To stubbornly keep it will only serve to remind the Chinese (as well to the Koreans) that Japan has not fully atone for its past crimes. Remember before Japan start intruding into its neighbors, all the islands from Ryukyu Kingdom to Taiwan are not part of Japan in the first place.
Jan Man
But also don’t underestimate the resourcefulness and patriotism of the Chinese as well. When real war broke out, it’s not only the Chinese that will suffer. The Japanese, the Americans and the world at large will suffer the same fate as well. If the belligerent Americans want to side with the Japanese by keeping the stolen war loot, there will be no end to eternal hatred. America is not a peacemaker but more a troublemaker by all yardstick.
Leo
China filled the power gap left in the Pacific when Washington focused on the Middle East and on the War of Terror. Plus, the recent advances of China’s economy has made many of its people buoyed and frankly belligerent. Confidence has always had this effect be it people or states.
Beijing thinks that playing their cards close to their chest would make them scary yet it has made the nations around it wary for any hostile Communist Chinese movements. They have resorted to saber rattling and multiple aggressive actions against perceived threats. One could ask the Communist Chinese General who advocated a short victorious war on what is he really afraid of.. A short victorious war could be a band-aid on some problem that they have at home.. It could be.
One thing that America is known is its willingness to bite the bullet when it comes to matter of principle and the right. The American military machine has been the standard on which all and I mean all the nations of Earth set themselves and mirror. China must bear that in mind.
From Lawrence’s, “Don’t give up the ship.” To MacArthur’s “I shall return.” These words still remain true lest Communist China forgets.
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